Hudbay Minerals (Copper - HBM) Jan 2026 Valuation Model and Risk Framework
Hudbay Minerals (Copper HBM) Jan 2026 Valuation Model and Risk Framework
This HBM valuation model includes EV/EBITDA and free cash flow based price targets, segment breakdown of mines, detailed operating model, historical financials, and estimated projections. Assumptions can easily be adjusted by the user. The memo includes a global copper supply / demand model with projections as well.
We also include our list of 10+ copper plays for the long term investor, which include both large cap copper and mid cap stocks, along with miner ETFs and funds.
Hudbay is one of the cheapest way to play the longer term copper bull market in today's market. Larger players like FCX and SCCO are already pricing in copper above $13,000/ton.
The copper equities under our coverage have rallied by 108% in 2025, supported by a 42% rise in the copper price that was specially sharp from November, coinciding with momentum driven rallies in gold and silver. There is a chance that momentum in copper may have exceeded fundamentals in the short term, but in the longer term there is strong support for the commodity. Long term, the copper price could rise from $13,000/t spot to above $15,000/ton spot as long term demand continues and supply stays roughly flat. It takes several years to start a new copper mine.
As a result, our preference is for copper equities that do not necessarily require higher copper prices to perform, due to either 1) relatively more attractive valuation, or 2) bottom-up triggers (e.g., production growth, gold exposure). According to our calculations, First Quantum (BUY) provides the best risk/reward on a potential Cobre Panama come back (binary event) and remains our preferred name within the sector along with HudBay Minerals. Hudbay also provide good FCF carry (at 32% cumulative in 2026-28) until Copper World growth is delivered by 2029. Similarly, Ero Copper (BUY) FCF potential at 12-16% in 2026-27 is attractive even at relatively conservative production growth numbers. We are presenting Hudbay Minerals as the lower risk option of the three, given solid fundamentals and upside from World Copper coming online.
Once you have downloaded the model, e-mail us for the associated memo.
Free to Silver and Gold subscribers (see Plans & Pricing): https://www.specialsitsresearch.com/plans-pricing