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Carvana (CVNA) 2024 Valuation Model and Risk Framework

Carvana (CVNA) 2024 Valuation Model and Risk Framework

Carvana (CVNA): Valuation and Outlook


"Is Carvana Overvalued? Was the 35% stock rally after earnings driven by short covering after earnings?"


Model updated for CVNA earnings and includes valuation and forecasts for revenues and margins.


This Carvana (CVNA) valuation model includes a detailed operating model with valuation, historical financials, projections, and segment build. Assumptions can easily be adjusted by the user.

Key Points:

- Company is trading at an almost $20 billion total enterprise value / 44x forward EBITDA at this morning's valuation ($73/share)

- Carvana is not a technology company and should be benchmarked to peer CarMax (KMX), which trades at 13-14x EBITDA (70% discount)

- Half of the company's debt is PIK at 14% interest that is simply being added to the value of the debt stack every year instead of being paid in cash, allowing the business to survive in the short term

- Gross profit per vehicle is peaking, in line with CarMax (not much upside from here)

- Much more detail in our model


Once you have downloaded the model, e-mail us for the associated memo for 2024.


Free to Silver and Gold subscribers (see Plans & Pricing):

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